OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2024 Issue 2

The global economy remains resilient, despite differences in the strength of activity and incomes across countries and sectors. Inflation has continued to fall, supporting real incomes, but consumer confidence is yet to recover to pre-pandemic levels in many countries. Global growth is projected to be 3.2% this year and 3.3% in 2025 and 2026, with inflation easing further. Nonetheless, the outlook is highly uncertain. An intensification of geopolitical tensions or global trade restrictions could hamper further disinflation and weaken the growth outlook. At the same time, future shocks could trigger disruptive corrections in financial markets, magnified by high debt and stretched asset valuations. The key policy priorities are to ensure a continued and lasting decline in inflation, enhanced efforts to establish a credible fiscal path that will secure debt sustainability, and ambitious reforms to raise sustainable and inclusive growth in the medium term. This issue includes an assessment of the global economic situation, a chapter on developments in labour shortages and associated policy considerations and a chapter summarising developments and providing projections for each individual country. Coverage is provided for all OECD members as well as for selected partner economies.