Dancing With the Dragon

Could China be a threat to Kim Chong-Ils regime? What would China do if it appeared likely that Kim"s provocations would instigate military action by the US or RoK? In this situation, China has three primary strategic options: she could choose to fight in a replay of the Korean War; she could do nothing and this could result in North Korea's defeat/occupation; or China could choose to intervene, which may involve a "regime change," to preserve the status quo. The research suggests the third option of intervention most closely aligns with China's strategic and regional objectives of maintaining the status quo. The evidence presented in this paper will explain why intervention is in China's best interest and will implicitly refute the other two options of "fighting" or "doing nothing." This intervention does not mean the People's Liberation Army (PLA) will invade North Korea, but the Chinese may have Kim removed, quietly or otherwise, and replaced with a less confrontational leader to maintain the current status quo. Consequently, the biggest threat to Kim's regime may not be the US/RoK, but rather China.

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