Weaponeering the Future

Direct Energy weapons can exist on the battlefield of today. Yet, the warfighter needs to know what Probability of Damage theses weapons can attain. Currently, the Joint Munitions Effectiveness Manual calculates a Single Sortie Probability of Damage for conventional Blast and Fragmentation weapons. Using Futures Research methodology allows determination of what effects Direct Energy weapons will impart in the year 2035. The Status of Futures Index (SoFI) method compares complex entities to one another across multiple dimensions. Adapting the Single Sortie Probability of Damage formula for Lasers, Microwave and Millimeter wave weapons allows a determination of their effectiveness. The required formulas for each type of Direct Energy Weapons' Probability of Damage (or Effect) are derived and explained. The Direct Energy weapons are compared to both conventional weapons and one another. Adjusting these Probability equations adjusted for various inputs enables a forecast of the future capabilities of each weapon. The current trend trajectory establishes a baseline estimate of future Probabilities of Effect. Then, disruptive technologies are analyzed for their effect on the weapons capabilities. Each type of weapon poses a unique challenge. For Laser to match the capabilities of Blast/Fragmentation weapons, the power output must be increased. Microwaves, not only require increases in power, but also advances in antenna technology. Millimeter wave weapons can currently produce the required power, but manufacturing the weapons proves an obstacle. To overcome these difficulties, new technologies must be pursued. The SoFI method allows continuous evaluation of progress toward the goal of effective Direct Energy Weapons.

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